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The three discernible cases are thus: 1. These are the prior probabilities. In this case, the statement is equivalent to the second the child that you can see is a boy. Retrieved 24 February What evidence would make you happier about your investment? However, if the family was first selected and then a random, true statement was made about the sex of one child in that family, whether or not both were considered, the correct way to calculate the conditional probability is not to count all of the cases that include a child with that sex.

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